Sunday 15 November 2015

REASONS FOR WHY I AM STILL CONFIDENT IN VOLSKWAGEN AUTO BUSINES

The shares of german car manufacturer droped in the last couple of months.As probably some of you know on september 2015 The Environmental Protection Agency issued o notice of violation of the clean air act by Volkswagen Group.

Despite the dramatic fall,I consider Wolkswagen Group is still a good business which deserve to invest now.



                                                               BALANCE SHEET
                                                 2014                           2013                   2012                      2011
CURRENT ASSETS             :     131,102              122,192         113,061               105,640
Inventory                            :         31,466                 28,653          28,674                27,551
Receivables                         :         21,096                 19,621         18,460                 17,630
TOTAL ASSETS                   :     351,209              324,333         309,518             253,769


LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
Accounts payables          :                  17 838                   16,583            15,662               15,244
TOTAL CURRENT LIABILITIES  :  130,706          118,625          105,526             101,237
Long term debt                          :            10,643         15,913            15,096                7,661
TOTAL LIABILITIES                     :   261,020          234,296         227,523             190,415
TOTAL EQUITY                            :     90,189           90,037           81,995                63,354




                                                                        INCOME STATEMENT
                                                    2014                               2013                     2012                      2011
TOTAL REVENUE                    : 202,458           197,007             192,676              159,337
Less: COST OF GOODS SOLD:(145,934)       (144,135)         (141,949)         (117,117)
GROSS PROFIT                          : 34,394           33,690                 33,379              27,106
OPERATING PROFIT                :  11,921           11,187                11,824              11,1000
Less:  Finance Cost                 :       (1870)             (1614)                  (1,786)           (1,325)
NET INCOME                              :   10,985         9,093                  21 ,712              15,409



                                                                     PERFORMANCE MEASURES

1 PROFITABILITY
                                                                      2014           2013           2012
ROCE                                                       :5,40%       5,43%        5,79%
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN                 :16,98%       17,1%     17,32%
PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD MARGIN:5,88%      5,67%       6,13%
ASSET TURNOVER                               :0,9              0,95          1,04

Despite an increase in revenue of 24,6% in 2014, the gross profit margin has fallen over 0,7% to 16,98%.Although revenue has shown an increase the falling gross profit margin may indicate that the company is unable to achieva the same level of sales price that it was in 2013,or is not efficient at controling all its costs.

The ROCE has actually fallen slightly from 5,43 in 2013 to 5,40 in 2014,this mean that the company is not good at generating profit from its capital employed.The decrease in the ROCE is due to the fall in the profit margin.

2  LIQUIDITY
                                                                    2014                  2013               2012                     2011
CURRENT RATIO                           :       1                           1,03                    1,07                 1,04
INVENTORY HOLDING PERIOD:    78,7 days             72,5 days       73,7 days          85,8 days
RECEIVABLES PERIOD                  :     38 days                36,3 days        35 days           40,3 days
PAYABLES PERIOD                       :        45 days               42 days           40 days           48 days

A slightly decrease in the current ratio in 2014 with 0,29% and 0,65% comparative with 2013 and 2012 that could indicate that the company has some liquidity problems,that its happen because the company is strungled to pay is debt.Payable period was 45 days in 2014 comparative with with 42 days in 2013.

Company inventory increased with 8,5%  in 2014 comparative with 2013 could indicate that the company is having problems selling its products..The company should take steps to increase inventory turnover by removing unpopular items of inventory.

3 MEASURING RISK
                             
                                        2014                 2013                  2012                 2011
GEARING                 :    10,55%        15,01%           15,52%             10,78%
INTEREST COVER  :   6,37                   6,93                6,62                    8,37

The company present a low level of debt more than that the level of gearing decreased in 2014 at 10,55% comparative with 2013.




                                                           BASIC VALUATION OF BUSINES
NET INCOME                        :10 985  
MARKET  PRICE                   :34,953,410
(Outstanding shares*share/price)
EQUITY                                     : 90 189
SHARE/PRICE                          :  118,45EURO/SHARE
P/E RATIO                                :     9,44
EPS                                              : 12,35
DIVIDEND                                 :4,80
PRICE BOOK RATIO               : 0,6
EXPECTED RETURN AFTER 1 YEAR   :   10%

The actual value of P/E Ratio and Book Value I could say that the company value is undervalued and is a good opportunity to invest.

ROCE(Return on capital employed)    Profit from operation/Capital employed*100
CAPITAL EMPLOYED=TOTAL ASSETS-CURRENT LIABILITIES
GROSS PROFIT MARGIN=GROSS PROFIT/REVENUE*100
PROFIT FOR THE PERIOD MARGIN=PROFIT FROM OPERATIONS/REVENUE*100
ASSET TURNOVER  =REVENUE/CAPITAL EMPLOYED
CURRENT RATIO=CURRENT ASSETS/CURRENT LIABILITIES
INVENTORY HOLDING PERIOD=INVENTORY/COST OF SALES*365
RECEIVABLES=RECEIVABLES/REVENUE*365
PAYABLES PERIOD=PAYABLES/PURCHASES*365
GEARING=DEBT/DEBT+EQUITY*100
INTEREST COVER=PROFIT BEFORE FINANCE CHARGE AND TAX/FINANCE COST

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