BEN BERNAKE THE LAST ACT

Hi everybody today is an important day on financial markets  a day which many investors expect it.Why is so important?  It's important because today is Federal Open Market Committee and perhaps the last meeting that will be leaded by Ben Bernake.

Ben Shalom Bernake is complet name the most powerful banker in the world and the person who toke the FED destiny from more than 6 years as chairman of Federal Reserve.

Appreciated by some criticized by others  Bernake done to establish an equilibrium.In the past of the years Bernake introuduced Bernake doctrine the teory that traditional business cycles have declined in volatility in recent decades and the most important and known fiscal policy who introduced is no doubt QE ( Quantitive Easing).

We can define QE as unconventional monetary policy introduced by Federal Reserve to stimulate us economy to make to bost it.By QE  FEd is buying treasury bonds in among of 85 billion $ every month.Initially was though that QE will produce healthy economic growth but it is not.The economic situation in US is improving unemployment rate is 7 % in november us added 203 k more jobs

I was wondering why is need quantitive easing? QE was taken out as an insurance against fiscal drag and is no longer needed.Back to my article title about FOMC meeting will be important to see what Bernake will say and the economic projections.And at the end I wish as a investor that Bernake to be more hawkish as a gift for Christmans.

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STERLING POUND GOING TO 1 ,5950?

Hi everybody it's a pleasure to write again and today I prepared the technical analysis on GBPUSD currency pair.Last week it seems that bears take control on GBPUSD ,the uptrend  period momentary it's over.

Concludent example it represent a series of economic indicators that were published last week.In October 2013 exports and goods in the UK decreased by 0,5 billion pounds to 12,1 billion,also the RICS (Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors)  Hause Price Balance increased to 58% from 57% but was much lower than economists forecast.Industrial production rose 0,4 % in October and also manufacturing production rose with 0,4 % .

Last week depreciation of pound comes amid of us economic data.In October US added 203 k more jobs,retail sales rose in November at a solid peace americans bought automobiles and other goods.For next week the main event it's with no doubt Federal Open Market Committe  where will be presented economic projections.Remains to be seen if the FED will start to taper assets purchases

                                                                      TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

On gbpusd started with monthly charter you can see that sellers take out the control,important to see how will close this candlestick at the end of the month.On weekly chart the hammer candlestik emphasize that gbpusd is going to an downtrend and moreover here you can see that we have a continues bearish divergence and the profit target will be 1 5950.
In conclusion for the week 16-20 December on GBPUSD I've bearish views.And don't forget investing in fx,stocks and commodities markets implies high risks.

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TAPER A CHRISTMAS GIFT FROM BERNAKE

Hi everybody financial year 2013 in close to end.It was a year which the main economies has reported signs of recover but not enougf.These small economic increases give us the hope that 2014 will be much better.

The most performing economy is with no doubt UK economy with 0,8 % GDP growth in Q3 2013 compared with Q2 2013 and unemployment rate drops to 7,6%
.
Central banks leaders in hope to revive thier economies created special tools such quantitive easing as they are called but for this subject I "ll write in other article.

Bankers from Ben Bernake to Kuroda adopted such tools to improve local economies.To end 15 years of defalation the Japan Central Bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda launced a series of measures such local assets purchases which reach up to 6 trillion yen in hope to hit 2 % inflation in 2015.Analysts are skeptical that BOJ will hit the inflation target,but will se what's going happen.

Almost the same situation is in United States.Federal Reserve is using quantitive easing  to help us economy to recover by it's monthly asset purchase program.But economis situation in USA differs greatly from Japan.In november us added 203 k more jobs and the unemployment rate drop to 7,00%  making speculation that Fed is ready to taper it's 85 billion $ assets purchase.

Fed chairman Ben Bernake say:"Fed will continue the easing policy for a long as needed"
Despite it was informations that FED will reduce the program in september Bernake has surprised everyone including me to announced that FED will maintian stimuls.

It seems that FOMC meeting in december will be the main event on financial markets.A reducing of bonds purchasing could be seen as a Christmas gift from Bernake at the end of his mandate as Federal Reserve chairman.

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EURO UNDER NEGATIVE DEPOSIT INTEREST RATE PERSPECTIVE

Hi everybody Negative deposit interest rate? Yes it could happen.Important ECB leaders emphasize this.But for that we should wait European Central Bank press conference and bid rate.

Last week euro reported earnings against all currencies unemployment rate in the eurozone area drop from 12,1% in october ,german preliminary (CPI) Consumer Price Index increased from -0,2% to 0,2 % in October

Despite falling of german import prices from 0,0% to negative -0,7%  and german unemployment change which increased from 3k to 10 k in october.

For the next week tha main event it seems to be with no doubt Mario Draghi press conference

On eurusd currency pair  excpet for ECB press conference other events are US preliminary GDP which is forecast to grow from 2,8% to 3,1 %,non farm employment change despite plesant report last week for december the economist forecast it to fell from 204 k to 184 k

                                                                     TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

On eurusd H4 chart the bearish divergence it seems to be consumed so you can think to enter with buy orders starting with 1,3610 and the profit target will be near psychological level 1,3700 ,1,3690 could be a realistic profit target.

If the price fall to pass 1,3610 you can take under the consideration short sell orders started with 1,3560 and the profit target will be near 1,3510 ,stop loss above the last high 1,3630.And at the end don't forget investing in stock,commodities,fx markets implies high risks.

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EURO UNDER PRESSURE

Hi everbody this week that just past produced important movements on financial markets.With no doubt the important event was ECB decision to cut the benckmark from 0,50% to a new historic low 0,25%.The decision surprised everyone.only three form 60 economist questioned by Bloomberg magazine forecast this movement.

The decision comes in a moment when it could be better,euro area was threatened by deflation euro was over in the couple of weeks.To eliminate deflation danger ECB President Mario Draghi announced the cut of interest rate a record low euro currencies depreciated against all currencies.

              11-15 November economic outlook

The Us dolar has strenghtened by the surprise NFP economic data wich reported important jobs 204 k new jobs added in cotmber,this come after another plesant surprise for american economy 3 quarter GDP which increased with 2,8 %
Euro retail sales drop by 0,6% in september 2013 compared with august 2013,despite the rose with 0,1 % of industrial producer index in september 2013 compared august 2013

Technical analysis on EUROUSD

For the next week on eurusd currencies pair I'm bearish on h4 chat if the price broke the resistance line 13319 we can choose to enter with sell oders starting with 13300 and the profit target will be near the next trend line  13212.In the scenario that price wouldn't broke the resistance line we can choose to enter with buy orders after the price test resistance line and the profit target  will be near the level 13455.So that's for eurousd for the next week and don't foreget investing in stocks,commodities,fx markets implies high risks.

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AUSSIE IS PREPARING FOR RETURN?

Hi everybody today I"d like to show some information about the australain dolar.Last week the aussie depreciated against all major currencies (aussie for those who don't yet know is the australian dolar)

Fundamental analysis

Building approvals rose 14,4 % in september,australian import price index rose 6,1 % in the september quarter 2013 the increase was driven by the depreciation of the australian dolar resulting increased price for imports.Inflation rate rose in september quarter with 1,3 %.

For 4-9 November the important event seems to be tuesday cash rate and the RBA statement.

Technical analysis

On audusd currencie pair if we look on H4 time frame it seems that the beers take the control but it is not relevent.So my opinion for de sell positions we need to wait untill de bullish divergence is consumed to resistence line 0,9487 if the resistence line has not broken we can enter with sell orders 0,9459 and the profit target will be 0,9388 near the level line 0,9378.

For those which wants to sell aussie they can enter with sell orders if the level 0,9378 will be broken will should to wait to be sure that the price to retest the level 0,9378  and you can enter with sell orders starting with 0,9353 and profit target will be near 0,9300.

For those with bullish view if we look on a daily chart we see that we have hiden divergence with bullish divergence on h4 so you can enter with buy orders if the resistence line will be broken when reversal bullish candlesticks appear.

Don't forget invest in stocks,commodities,fx markets implies high risks.
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LEHMAN BROTHERS GOST HIT CHINA

 Hi everyone today I'd like to speak about China a power in expansion which would to become the main economic power in 2030. About China importants business newspapers wrote articles every day.

In China it seems that things are no so good and People of Communist Party know that.China is confronted with bad loans crisis. To mask this problem China Central Bank and clampdown the inflation introduces 1 year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) lending benckmark.

Making a parallel with the situation in US 2007-2008 we can say it resemble in both casses we have bad loans.This situation causes concer to chinese autorities they ensure us that everything is under control and at the end we still to wait sa see what's going happen.

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Image source: The guardian)